In the agreement between the PSOE and the PNV for the latter’s support to the investiture of Sánchez, there is a point that implies “culminating […] the transfer to Euskadi of the competences still pending”. This implies the transfer of the Social Security, since it is a point that appears in the Statute of Guernika (specifically “the management of the economic regime of the Social Security”).
There are already voices indicating that this could mean the rupture of the single Social Security fund, by which all Spaniards have the same pension system. Two people who have contributed the same amount and under the same conditions have the same pension regardless of where they live. Will there be any changes?
The pension deficit
The main issue here is that in almost all the Autonomous Communities the Social Security is in deficit. That is, the income from contributions is less than the expenditure on pensions. Only the Balearic Islands, Madrid and Ceuta and Melilla have a surplus. And their surplus does not offset that of the rest of the Autonomous Communities.
If we focus on the Basque Country, the deficit is quite large, 7,016.40 million euros, only surpassed by Castilla León, Cantabria and Asturias. Its ratio of contributors to pensioners is 1.7, also one of the lowest in Spain.
Breaking up the single fund? What for?
Therefore, breaking the single fund does not make sense. In order to sustain the system, it would have to devote large public resources (7,000 million is 4.5 times what it pays for the Basque quota, 1,500 million). It would not be worth it.
There is also talk that the Basque Country could create a specific supplement for its pensioners. Politically it makes sense, since the population of this Community is very old. But again we are talking about very expensive measures.
The Basque Country has 570,000 pensioners. A supplement of 100 euros a month would be 684 million a year. Less than that would be a ridiculous supplement. And the total budget for the Basque Country this year is 14,700 million, we are not talking about crumbs.
Therefore, I do not see the logic in breaking the single fund. Euskadi is not interested in it. It may be interested in managing the collection and payments, to have more power, civil servants and move more money, but it has no logic whatsoever to break the single fund and make its own pensions separately because its pensioners would lose purchasing power.